Tag: Week

Severe winter weather sweeping the country this week won’t just have a big impact on your holiday travel plans, but possibly all of your NFL rooting interests.

Saturday could be the most impactful NFL weather day on record. With playoff lives, fantasy championships and more, at stake, we’ve got you covered on the potential fallout on the impacted games. Let’s just say, anytime you hear the phrases “bomb cyclone” and “polar vortex”, it’s probably a good idea to check your fantasy lineup again, for starters.

Eight games on Saturday are currently scheduled for below freezing kickoff temperatures, which would be an NFL record for a single day. All eight are also forecasted to have 10-plus mile per hour winds.

How could this impact the overall NFL landscape?

Cold weather has little impact on league scoring. Since 2000, league-wide scoring drops less than two points per game in freezing temperatures, while passing and rushing numbers don’t move significantly.

PPG	42.4	44.2
Pass yards per game	412	446
Rush yards per game	245	228

Wind has more of an impact on offensive production, especially if it hits 15-plus miles per hour. In those games, you lose about a touchdown compared with indoor games, and four points from an average game. Saints-Browns, Bills-Bears, Bengals-Patriots, Falcons-Ravens and Raiders-Steelers are currently the games in that territory.

PPG	46.9	44.3	42.1	40.5
Pass yards per game	472	448	423	397
Rush yards per game	226	227	230	240

The impact of both cold weather combined with wind can be truly detrimental to an offense. Forty-four games since 2000 have featured freezing temperatures and 15-plus mile per hour winds. Those games averaged 37.9 points per game. To put that into perspective, of the 32 teams, only the Broncos see a lower combined scoring average in their games this year.

Average game	44.2
Freezing temperatures	42.4
15+ MPH winds	40.5
Freezing temps & 15+ MPH winds	37.9

Our experts, Chris Towers (fantasy), R.J. White (betting), and myself (facts/playoff stakes), dive into each cold game and the impacts across the board. 

All forecasts provided by AccuWeather.

• 8 degrees, RealFeel of -22
• 28 mph wind, gusts up to 46 mph
• Cloudy, a snow shower; very cold, blowing and drifting snow

Fact to Know

• This could be the first game with 25-plus mile per hour winds since the Patriots-Bills 14-10 slugfest in Buffalo last year where the Patriots attempted just three passes. The current Over/Under point total of 31.5 is the lowest in a game since 2008 (Browns/Bengals). 

Playoff Stakes

• Both teams are still alive in the playoff hunt, but have under 5 percent chances to reach the postseason, per SportsLine projections. You’d think the weather would impact the Saints more, as they leave the friendly confines of the Superdome, but it will be easily the coldest game of Deshaun Watson’s career, ahead of last week’s game against the Ravens (32 degrees).

Fantasy Impact

• The concern here is definitely more around the wind forecasts. Snow tends to have a slightly negative impact on passing production (and a slightly positive impact on rushing production), but wind is the much bigger concern. Teams are more likely to go run-heavy in cold, windy environments, and these are two teams that already want to limit possessions and run the ball. If the forecast holds, I wouldn’t be surprised to see neither QB attempt 30 passes. If Nick Chubb (foot) is out, this could make Kareem Hunt a potential top-10 RB. 

Betting Impact

• The total is an automatic Under play even in the low 30s if forecast holds. Cleveland team total Under 16.5 is a good look as well with Chubb managing an injury. The Saints could be in a better position to take advantage of weather than run-heavy Browns as they can lean heavily into the Taysom Hill package. Unders likely for all passing/receiving props.

• 12 degrees, RealFeel of -14
• 23 mph wind, gusts up to 33 mph
• Cloudy with blowing and drifting snow
• Winter Storm Watch in effect through late Friday night

Fact to Know

Playoff Stakes

• Brutal winter weather is nothing new to the Bills, who can clinch a third straight AFC East title with a win OR Dolphins loss this week.

Fantasy Impact

• We saw the Bills play in snowy conditions a bit last week, and between the weather and the opponent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more run-heavy approach from them. That’s in keeping with recent trends for them anyway, as Allen has attempted 34 or fewer passes in five of his past eight games. The key question will be whether the Bears can score enough to force the Bills to have to pass. This could be a game where James Cook sees a dozen or so carries, making him a viable sleeper with a good matchup. 

Betting Impact

• Totals in Bears games are usually high with the state of their defense and Justin Fields able to lead the offense to points consistently. The total here tells you the weather matters for the Bills’ passing attack, and that should give the Bears a great chance at covering as underdogs of more than a TD at home just like they did against Philadelphia last week. QB rushing props will be key and likely to be Over plays on both sides.

• 20 degrees, RealFeel of 10
• 12 mph wind, gusts up to 20 mph 
• Partly sunny and breezy

Fact to Know

Playoff Stakes

• The Titans are protecting a one-game lead over the Jaguars in the AFC South, but won’t have Ryan Tannehill, who played one of his best games of the season in freezing temperatures at Lambeau Field last month. Tennessee can still lean on Derrick Henry, who has four straight 200-yard rushing games against the Texans, including his last one with Malik Willis starting.

Fantasy Impact

• Here’s another one where the team’s tendencies align with how this kind of weather tends to impact football games. The Titans, obviously, want to run the ball a ton, and that’ll be especially true if Willis has to start in place of an injured Tannehill. The Texans are less inclined to run the ball, especially without Dameon Pierce, but seeing as how the Titans managed just 17 points in both of Willis’ previous two starts, it’s unlikely they’re going to need to throw much. 

Betting Impact

• Wind is not as much of a factor here, but Tennessee should be locked in on running the ball as it did in the first Houston meeting when Willis was quarterback. He went 6-for-10 for 55 yards in that game as Henry topped 200 rushing yards, so you cannot make his rushing prop high enough here. If Tannehill is ruled out and spread drops below 4, Titans are the way to look.

• 17 degrees, RealFeel of -1
• 16 mph wind, gusts up to 47 mph
• Partly sunny and breezy with a snow shower
• 40{b7c9e2c88beb1a84f22d94ab877a147f4adc4b3519717f3f957a0f34e16918d1} chance of precipitation

Fact to Know

• Joe Burrow is 5-0 with a 119.9 passer rating in the five coldest games of his NFL career, including playoffs.

Playoff Stakes

• “We’re on to Cincinnati” would be one phrase for the Patriots to embrace as they cling to their playoff lives (27 percent chance) after Sunday’s all-time blunder against the Raiders. A home game in freezing temperatures, even as underdogs against the Bengals, could be just what the doctor ordered. That might not bother Joe “Cool”, though, as the Bengals protect a one-game division lead over Baltimore.

Fantasy Impact

• I think the key to watch here will be whether the wind is projected to pick up and whether the chances of snow increase as the week goes on. If the weather looks like it’s going to clear up, I’d expect a relatively normal game plan from both teams. 

Betting Impact

• Weather shouldn’t be a big factor in this game, but the perception of all outdoor games dealing with bad weather could put value on passing and receiving Overs in this game, particularly on the Cincinnati side. A line of Patriots +3.5 may look tempting with the hook, but they’ve lost three times by double digits against top offenses this year and the Bengals are 11-1 ATS in the last 12.

• 15 degrees, RealFeel of 2
• 13 mph wind, gusts up to 18 mph
• Sunny and breezy

Fact to Know

• Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 with 23 touchdown passes, 318 passing yards per game and a 112.0 passer rating in his career in freezing temperatures. His only loss was the 37-31 overtime thriller against the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship game.

Playoff Stakes

• The Seahawks sit a half game back of the Commanders for the final NFC playoff spot and have a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs according to SportsLine projections. They’ve lost four of five and their final three games are against the Chiefs, Jets and Rams.

Fantasy Impact

• The Chiefs have the highest pass rate over expectation in the league, with an expected pass rate of 56{b7c9e2c88beb1a84f22d94ab877a147f4adc4b3519717f3f957a0f34e16918d1} and an actual pass rate of 66.3{b7c9e2c88beb1a84f22d94ab877a147f4adc4b3519717f3f957a0f34e16918d1}. Even in less than ideal conditions, I’d be surprised to see Isiah Pacheco get 25-plus carries, or anything – this offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. The Seahawks would probably love to go run-heavy, but the Chiefs offense will dictate that more than the weather. 

Betting Impact

• Another cold game but wind is not a major factor so this total is up in the high 40s while other games are in the 30s and low 40s. The Chiefs dominated the Texans in the box score but needed OT to win, while the Seahawks defense is collapsing. But Geno Smith has played at a level this year where he could backdoor cover a big spread like this against a so-so Chiefs defense. 

• 18 degrees, RealFeel of 2
• 16 mph wind, gusts up to 22 mph
• Mostly sunny and breezy

Fact to Know

Playoff Stakes

• The Falcons have lost five of their last six games, including three straight and their playoff chances are down to five percent per SportsLine projections. The Ravens division title chances are at 40 percent as they sit one game behind the Bengals in the AFC North.

Fantasy Impact

• Desmond Ridder’s first NFL game didn’t go well, and the degree of difficulty is only going to go up in these conditions, against this defense. Both of these teams want to run the ball a lot in normal conditions, so this is another one where I’d be a little surprised to see both quarterbacks top 30 pass attempts – granted, that might be the case if they were playing in a dome. Tyler Allgeier saw more carries than Cordarrelle Patterson last week and could be in line for another big workload, albeit against a very tough matchup. 

Betting Impact

• Desmond Ridder didn’t get much done as a passer in his debut, and the Ravens have an elite rush defense, so the Falcons offense will be hard-pressed to put up points. Looking under their team total of 14.5 is a value play before the overall total moves, which is could if Lamar Jackson is ruled out. If that happens, a touchdown is too much for Baltimore to lay with the state of its offense.

• 28 degrees, RealFeel of 20
• 12 mph wind, gusts up to 20 mph
• Sunny and cold

Fact to Know

• The Lions are 3-0 SU and ATS in games played in below 40 degrees temperatures this season, however Jared Goff averages just 10.9 fantasy PPG in nine career games with kickoff temperatures below 40.

Playoff Stakes

• The Lions are a half game behind the Commanders for the final NFC playoff spot and their playoff chances are up to 31 percent after they sat at 0.3 percent following a 1-6 start. The Panthers control their own destiny for an NFC South title as they are a game behind Tampa Bay.

Fantasy Impact

• Cold is less of a concern than wind and precipitation, and with the forecast not really calling for much in the way of either factor, I don’t think there’s much to worry about here. 

Betting Impact

• No real weather concern for the Lions here after they put up the most yardage an offense has had against the Jets since Week 2, and the most passing yards since Week 3. Despite it being a lower-scoring game, the Detroit offense continued to play well, and it gets an easier matchup here. Detroit is playing like a top-10 team, and there’s no issue laying 2.5 on the road against a bad opponent with teams of that quality.

• 10 degrees, RealFeel of -10
• 15 mph wind, gusts up to 26 mph
• Cloudy and very cold with a snow shower

Fact to Know

Playoff Stakes

• Both teams are 6-8 and have playoff chances below 3 percent, according to SportsLine projections. Both teams also showed last year (and last week) you can never count them out. The Steelers also need to win out to avoid their first losing season since 2003. 

Fantasy Impact

• Kenny Pickett is used to playing in the cold from his time in college, but Derek Carr’s struggles in the cold are relatively well-documented. He has played six games with a temperature below 37 degrees at kickoff, and he has just one touchdown in each, with only two games over 222 yards. The Steelers have allowed more than 200 passing yards just twice in T.J. Watt’s seven games, too, so this could be a tough one for Carr and the Raiders passing game. 

Betting Impact

• Carr’s awful numbers in freezing temperatures are not a good indicator for the Raiders offense when the Steelers have shut down the run in their past two games. The Steelers want to be a run-focused offense, and Pickett shouldn’t have to do a ton with the Raiders struggling to defend the run last week. This line moved to Steelers -3 with the news of Pickett’s return, and even though their offense is a bit limited, they are in a great spot to win this game.